In the lead up to the invasion of Iraq, I heard a lot of chatter about how going it alone wasn't a problem and how Europe would help us in the postwar phase. Yes, we could slap those chocolate-eating dandies around all we wanted because it's not like they want to lose their place at the table when it comes to doling out all that tasty, tasty oil.
That's realpolitik, we were smugly reassured.
Okay, how's this for realpolitik? Domestic support for prolonged US intervention is slipping fast while the European leaders still enjoy overwhelming popularity among their own people for not giving in to the US. We're losing a soldier a day (more or less) and the UN headquarters in Baghdad was hit by a suicide bomber again today. Bush the Younger is going into re-election with less popularity than his dad had and it looks like the Dems have actually managed to find a few liberals who can take a punch.
Seems to me that all Germany and France have to do is wait. Even if Bush gets re-elected, he's going to have to burn more and more of his popularity to keep this ship afloat. When it eventually sinks, all the Europeans have to do is cut a deal with whichever ruthless scumbag rises to the top of the cess pool we leave behind. Giving the choice contracts to the EU would be just the sort of "so long, asshole" parting shot I'd want to give us, if I were Iraq.
Funny how all these sabers we enjoy rattling seem to be double-edged, which sabers never are, but you know what I mean.
Posted by Jason at September 22, 2003 03:17 PM